I read in tennis/ace magazine that Nadal had a heal stress fracture some years ago. He came back strong
I'm sure Daniela will be back again, but she is just the type of player who takes her time getting back and finding old form.
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| Author: | pmrd44 [ 27. August 2008 12:09 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: US Open, New York |
Phil, I think we have already discussed the match up issue on tennisforum. Even then I told you that Daniela generally struggles against big servers and heavy hitters. That's how it is, her record against tall power players is dismal - she can't dictate the points, more often finds herself in defense, which is where she is vulnerable the most. That's why she managed to have a decent scoreline against Cornet, who is in no way a power player, cause she could dictate the points and play at her own tempo. That's why she has decent H2H's against Henin, Mauresmo and Kuznetsova (Kuzzy is a power player, but her serve and return is not as dangerous for Daniela, because she isn't tall enough to serve as big and take the ball on the rise when returning) while her H2H against Davenport, the WS or Sharapova is bad. If Daniela was in a good form I would give her a fair chance to beat a player like Groenefeld, because the German isn't a top power player. But knowing Daniela's current form it was quite clear that she would lose this match. I only regret that I didn't bet on it. That would have been some easy earned money. You simply can't explain everything in tennis via stats, it doesn't work like that. Tennis is mainly about two styles of play and how they match against each other, regarding current form, surface they play on and other factors. I wasn't lucky at all with that prediction. There's plenty of counterexamples to your point though. She's really 0-1 against Henin since she became a top, top player. So you cannot really use her as an example. She's also 0-7 against Clijsters who doesn't fall into the big hitter category. Ivanovic is a huge hitter and Daniela has done quite well against her (1-3 but almost even in games won).There's also her surprisingly poor record against Sugiyama and Smashnova, two very small players. Also, keep in mind that even in Daniela's current form, she was good enough to beat players demonstrably better than Groenefeld. Maybe not better than the Groenefeld who played way above her head in this match but against what it would be reasonable to expect of her on average. |
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| Author: | pmrd44 [ 27. August 2008 12:17 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: US Open, New York |
Again, if you (or anyone else) attempts to argue that matchups play a large role in determining the outcome of a tennis match above and beyond what rankings would suggest, that's easy to prove. All you do is identify players who Daniela has surprisingly bad records against and surprisingly good records against and see if there's any pattern in the composition of the two groups. For instance, if we find that Daniela wins 30% of her matches against players ranked from 7-12, look at all the players in that tier where she wins 15% of the time or less or 50% or more. Or look at every time she played an opponent outside the top 100 (throwing out matches v. a Davenport or Williams ranked that low). From that group, put the players who beat her in one pool and put the players who she beat by dropping less than six games to in another pool. Do the same thing with every strata of players. Take the average height and serve speed of each group. You will then have the hard evidence needed to prove or disprove your point. |
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| Author: | ever_the_optimist [ 27. August 2008 12:23 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: US Open, New York |
what will happen to her ranking then. i hope bartoli or schnyder won be successful in US open Daniela lost 1st round last year so her ranking points wont change, her position may change depending on what the people around her do. Scott |
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| Author: | martin [ 27. August 2008 12:50 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: US Open, New York |
She is 2-2 against Henin 2002 version, which was a top player, but not a power player. Daniela had enough time to play her own offensive game against Justine. Clijsters is a player whose game could easily absorb everything Daniela had and turn defense into offense. That was probably even worse match up for Daniela than Davenport or Sharapova could have ever been. Sugiyama and Smashnova could force Daniela to self-destroy, but the results weren‘t your typical blowouts Daniela receives from top power players. In Sugiyama‘s case I would say there also is a mental part playing its role. In Smashnova‘s case two of three Daniela‘s losses were on clay. As I wrote, you must regard such things as surface. Ivanovic doesn‘t like low bouncing flat shots, cause her knee work isn‘t good enough and she isn‘t such a good returner as Davenport or Sharapova. That evens the match up. I used some simplifications in my previous post to make you understand more easily, but of course every match up is slightly different as no players play exactly the same game/have the same strengths and weaknesses. |
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| Author: | kallur83 [ 27. August 2008 13:03 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: US Open, New York |
even though i really liked her two victory's vs Henin , the Henin of 2002 wasn't the same as 2003 (2 slams), 2005 4 clay evens in a row or 2007 (3 slam finals , won 2 + masters) in 2002 she was still mentally weak, it changed during the clay season 2003 in Berlin but it are still big wins anyway whatever kinda player Groenefeld is , it's still a shame she lost from someone who didn't had a big win in 2 years, i understand martin's comments when he compares players like mauresmo-kuznetsova vs a other group sharapova,williams,davenport but groenefeld aint one of the two even tough her game is more difficult then let's say schnyder (daniela always like to play her) or Pennetta , it's still a player with less quality's then Daniela, and it's one of her worst losses. Not to mention without offending anyone (cause Daniela had the opposite problem long time ago) but Groenefeld looked like Hurley's sister (Lost) last year. but i still believe Daniela can be top 10 again in 2009, fighting back from this is nothing compared to fighting back from 2003-2004 |
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| Author: | danielitsa [ 27. August 2008 17:20 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: US Open, New York |
martin and pmrd i get your thoughts,i think the truth is somewhere between you two. danielas bad form due the heel issue and groenefelds extremely good serve is the cause for the loss. sucks and hurts this loss,but thats life. i agree completely with callurs last sentence.will find her form again. lets focus in doubles,needs match practice not break for god shake. good finish in the last part of season is what she needs,nothing else she is ok. bad days people,will come better |
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| Author: | krima [ 27. August 2008 18:21 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: US Open, New York |
It is all a question of confidence in tennis. Maybe the best example that exists at the moment: Roger Federer One of the best tennis players ever, but without confidence, as at the moment, he also loses matches and is far away from his best. |
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| Author: | asj001 [ 27. August 2008 18:27 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: US Open, New York |
It is all a question of confidence in tennis. Maybe the best example that exists at the moment: Roger Federer One of the best tennis players ever, but without confidence, as at the moment, he also loses matches and is far away from his best. Couldn't agree more. |
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| Author: | martin [ 27. August 2008 19:27 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: US Open, New York |
I just watched the match re-live and must say that Daniela played not nearly as bad as I thought, no errorfest which is a good sign. It was, as expected, mostly about Groenefeld's 1st and Daniela's 2nd serve (without any doubt a major hole in Daniela's game). In the 9th game of the 1st set Daniela didn't hit a single 1st serve and got punished for that (most female players would lose a game in which they didn't hit a 1st serve). It was tough to break Groenefeld as she really produces bombs between 120-125 mph and hits aces quite often. In the opening game of the 2nd set one of the linesmen robbed Daniela of a point and she lost the game afterwards, from then on Daniela's level of play was still okay but she looked to be focused more on the linesmen and the umpire and looked quite irritated. When she got a bp Groenefeld dismissed it with an ace. Tough luck I guess. but groenefeld aint one of the two She isn't, but she is a player who can exploit Daniela's 2nd serve and movement much better than say Hingis, Schnyder, Cornet or Peer. But I agree with you when you say that Daniela will eventually start winning again. I never doubted that. btw. I have a question for our British mates. I know Andy Murray was injured last year, how long took him to start winning matches after he came back? |
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| Author: | christina [ 27. August 2008 22:14 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: US Open, New York |
I read in tennis/ace magazine that Nadal had a heal stress fracture some years ago. He came back strong I'm sure Daniela will be back again, but she is just the type of player who takes her time getting back and finding old form.
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| Author: | kallur83 [ 27. August 2008 22:22 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: US Open, New York |
I read in tennis/ace magazine that Nadal had a heal stress fracture some years ago. He came back strong I'm sure Daniela will be back again, but she is just the type of player who takes her time getting back and finding old form.yeah there was a lot of commotion about that injury during the winter, but it doesn't seem to botter him lol |
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| Author: | pmrd44 [ 28. August 2008 02:29 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: US Open, New York |
Court 10 11:00 AM Start 1 Men's Singles - 2nd Rnd. Jurgen Melzer (AUT) v. Jiri Vanek (CZE) Not Before 1:00 PM 2 Men's Doubles - 1st Rnd. Robert Lindstedt (SWE)/Jarkko Nieminen (FIN) v. Jesse Levine (USA)/Donald Young (USA) 3 Women's Doubles - 1st Rnd. Mariya Koryttseva (UKR)/Tatiana Perebiynis (UKR) v. Lindsay Davenport (USA)/Daniela Hantuchova (SVK) 4 Men's Doubles - 1st Rnd. Max Mirnyi (BLR)[14]/Jamie Murray (GBR)[14] v. Michal Mertinak (SVK)/Lovro Zovko (CRO) 5 Mixed Doubles - 1st Rnd. Lindsay Davenport (USA)/Mike Bryan (USA) v.Tatiana Poutchek (BLR)/Christopher Kas (GER) |
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| Author: | krima [ 28. August 2008 18:21 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: US Open, New York |
I read in tennis/ace magazine that Nadal had a heal stress fracture some years ago. He came back strong I'm sure Daniela will be back again, but she is just the type of player who takes her time getting back and finding old form.I don't want to say that Daniela isn't a good tennis player, but I think we can't compare Daniela and Rafa. Although Daniela is very talented and is able to play great, IMO Rafa is just a class higher. But of course this can give us hope that also Daniela will get back soon. |
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| Author: | Fab [ 29. August 2008 00:46 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: US Open, New York |
Daniela and Lindsay won 6-2, 7-6 (7-1) against the Ukrainians. Next round against Vesnina and Zvonareva. As expected. I know something about tennis afterall.  You were right, Martin. I always wonder why so many people continue to say : "Daniela will win easily this match" etc. etc.  She lost so many matches like that in all her career. Besides, with her injury, it's even worse. I have the impression some people don't know Daniela at all.
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| Author: | pmrd44 [ 29. August 2008 01:29 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: US Open, New York |
Daniela and Lindsay won 6-2, 7-6 (7-1) against the Ukrainians. Next round against Vesnina and Zvonareva. As expected. I know something about tennis afterall. You were right, Martin. I always wonder why so many people continue to say : "Daniela will win easily this match" etc. etc. She lost so many matches like that in all her career. Besides, with her injury, it's even worse. I have the impression some people don't know Daniela at all.The notion that Daniela loses more than she "should" to bad players is a myth. She's 24-4 over the last two years against players outside the top 70 (not counting Davenport). The losses are to Sprem (injured & clay), Ondraskova (clay), Razzano (who later reached the top 30) and Vinci. For comparison's sake, Dinara Safina is 21-5 and Elena Dementieva is 21-2 against players outside the top seventy of the last two years.Of course, no match is a sure thing as we saw today. But when you see Daniela against a much lower ranked player, the odds are strongly in her favor. As an aside, there is a chance that Groenefeld does not fit into the category of a much weaker player in that she has a track record of being in the top twenty. That much remains to be seen though. |
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